Far from responding to Yunus' request for Hasina's extradition, New Delhi is not even trying to rein in the former prime minister
On Monday (April 7), deposed Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina launched a fierceattack on the country's interim government and its chief advisor, Muhammad Yunus, blaming the Nobel laureate for turning “peaceful Bangladesh into a country of militants and terrorists” and vowed to return home to get justice delivered.
Hasina’s war cry
"Our politicians and workers are being killed and attacked brutally... It cannot be described in words. Everyone... our workers, cops, lawyers, journalists and artists are being targeted," she said in a virtual interaction with family members of Awami League supporters from her safe shelter in India, where she has lived since her ouster in August last year.
According to a post on the party's Facebook page, Hasina asked her party cadres to track attacks on every Awami League activist and build an elaborate database.
India and Hasina
Not so much the content of what she said but Hasina's fusillade itself within less than a week after the much-touted Modi-Yunus meeting on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC summit at Bangkok is what that makes it most interesting.
Also Read: Why Bangladesh student leaders, Army look set for final showdown
The deposed prime minister said more or less what she has stated repeatedly in all her virtual interactions with party leaders and supporters, ending them with a General MacArthur type "I will soon be back" promise.
One would imagine this was more to boost the morale of party cadres who face tremendous persecution under the new dispensation than to indicate an imminent possibility. But Hasina's vitriolic attack did indicate that New Delhi is not interested in stopping her.
Modi-Yunus meet
According to Muhammad Yunus' press chief Shafiqul Alam, the Nobel laureate made a specific request to Modi to restrain Sheikh Hasina from making provocative statements by misusing India's hospitality. He also claimed that Yunus pushed for Hasina's extradition -- a claim that did not find a place in the Indian external affairs ministry statement or in the foreign secretary's briefing in Delhi.
Later, Indian officials expressed much angst over Alam making some controversial claims in his verified Facebook page, describing them as “preposterous” and “plain lies”. This referred to Modi's purported comments about being aware of Hasina's hostile views on Yunus as opposed to “most Indians” holding the Nobel laureate in high esteem.
For and against meeting
A former diplomat argued that Alam would not be posting such controversial stuff unless cleared by Yunus himself, meaning the Nobel laureate was "trying to milk the meeting for whatever it was worth".
Also Read: Dhaka using communal, anti-India card by arresting Hindu leader
It is no secret now that Bangladesh's interim government pushed really hard for the Modi-Yunus meeting to happen. India took a long time to accept the proposal. Although there were those in the Indian officialdom who opposed the meeting as it could provide legitimacy to an unelected interim government, some argued in favour "to convey our concerns at the highest level" -- specially drive home India's security concerns over surging Islamist radicalism and the persecution of religious minorities.
Yunus on Indian northeast
That was done more forcefully by National Security Advisor Ajit Doval in his meeting with Yunus' 'High Representative' Khalilur Rahman and not so much by Modi when meeting Yunus although the prime minister did raise the issue of persecution of minorities.
Yunus' projection of a landlocked northeast India and Bangladesh's “formidable” maritime presence as a possible “extension of the Chinese economy” did not amuse the Delhi officialdom. Nor did his pitch to award Chinese companies work on the Teesta river water project or a proposed airfield at Lalmonirhat, too close to the vulnerable Chicken's Neck (Siliguri Corridor).
Axing benefits
Apart from letting Hasina attacking Yunus, India had also cancelled a 2020 circular that permitted the transhipment of export cargo from Bangladesh to third countries using Indian Land Customs Stations (LCSs) en route to Indian ports and airports. This helped Bangladesh’s exports to countries such as Bhutan, Nepal and Myanmar.
This notification by the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) on Tuesday could potentially disrupt Bangladesh’s trade with these three countries.
Also Read: Bangladesh court issues new arrest warrant against Hasina, her daughter in graft case
The CBIC, in its circular dated April 8, stated that it had rescinded its earlier one dated June 29, 2020 in respect of the “transhipment of export cargo from Bangladesh to third countries through LCSs to ports or airports in containers or closed-bodied trucks”.
China and Bangladesh
But even the Chinese will be less than pleased if Yunus finally succumbs to US pressure to open Bangladesh's borders for a sustainable supply route to Myanmar’s many rebel groups, especially in the Rakhine State, because Beijing does not want the military junta to lose any further ground in the escalating civil war.
Beijing has come out in open support of the military junta and does not want to be blocked out of its land-to-sea access which an US-backed rebel formation in the coastal Rakhine state may deny.
What US wants
The US discussed the supply route during Lt Gen JB Vowell's recent visit to Dhaka, as deputy commanding general for the US Army Pacific Command. Two senior US diplomats, deputy assistant secretary of state (South and Central Asia) Nicole Ann Chulick and deputy assistant secretary (East Asia and Pacific) Andrew Herrup, will be in Dhaka between April 15 and 18 to push the American agenda on Myanmar.
The US charge d'affairs in Myanmar, Susan Stevenson, will join them, making it obvious that the Myanmar situation will be uppermost on the agenda and not so much what is happening in Bangladesh.
India, US divided
India and the US are somewhat divided over the priorities vis-a-vis Bangladesh and Myanmar. India does not want the Burmese state or the army to fall apart but would wish to see a comprehensive dialogue that ends the civil war and leads to a restoration of democracy through elections with the army going back to the barracks.
Also Read: China agrees to deepen ties with Dhaka ahead of Yunus-Xi talks
Without peace returning to Myanmar, India's security and connectivity are less likely to be addressed. The US is perhaps looking for a total defeat of the Burmese army leading to a collapse of the military junta and the creation of a confederation of independent states that would help its presence in the strategic underbelly of China.
Bangladesh and Myanmar
For that to happen, the US may be willing to use Bangladesh in a way it used Pakistan to fight the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. A China-US proxy war in Myanmar with understandable threat of escalation in the backdrop of the intensifying trade-tariff war does not augur well for India which is more keen to have a friendly government in Dhaka that is focussed on development priorities, checks Islamist radicalism and avoids getting sucked into the Big Power rivalry unfolding in Myanmar.
Also Read: Yunus invites China into Bangladesh, saying 7 Indian states are ‘landlocked’
In a desperate bid to stay in power and delay elections under one pretext or another, Yunus is trying to please all sides with the attendant risk of upsetting some or most. He has surely upset India on many counts and that is evident. Far from responding to Yunus' request for Hasina's extradition, Delhi is not even trying to rein in the former prime minister. India would surely prefer a Hasina capable of saying no to a US proposal for military logistics bases than a Yunus who would do all it takes to survive.
Bangladeshis and Kolkata
Kolkata is already home to a huge exile population of not only Awami Leaguers but also top former civil and military officials, professionals and business persons who feel threatened in Bangladesh. At some point, India would want them to go back. But that can only happen if elections take place and normalcy is restored with a level playing field for all and sundry.
The all-pervading chaos gripping Bangladesh is threatening to spill over into India's eastern states, as the recent violence over the Waqf Bill in parts of West Bengal would indicate. It may help the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) score brownie points against a beleaguered Mamata Banerjee but it does not augur well for India's security.
(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal)