Air Canada, Delta and United cutting US-Canada flights as bookings plummet
Canadians may be taking their vacation dollars and going pretty much anywhere other than the U.S.
Preliminary data shows future flight bookings from Canada to the U.S. down more than 70% for every month from April through September compared to last year, according to aviation analytics firm OAG. In April — typically peak spring break travel season to sunny spots like Florida — there are just under 300,000 bookings compared to 1.2 million in 2024.
"This sharp drop suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute," John Grant, chief analyst at OAG, said about the new data.
Air Canada, the largest airline by seats between the U.S. and Canada, disagrees with the analysis.
"We can confirm that [the preliminary OAG data] is not reflective of Air Canada's booking patterns, nor the state of the market, based on all information sources available to us," an Air Canada spokesperson said.
"While we have experienced a softening in the transborder market – and have shifted a limited amount of capacity to adapt to it as previously announced – the decline Air Canada has experienced is not of the magnitude cited," they continued, adding that the drop in bookings is "significantly less" than the preliminary data suggests.
The Trump administration slapped a 25% tariff on most goods from Canada at the beginning of March and is threatening to expand it to all goods in April. Additionally, the president has made repeated claims that the country should become the "51st state," a statement that has angered many Canadians.
In February, former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called on Canadians to "choose Canada" for their future travel plans amid Trump's threats.
The number of people crossing into the U.S. from Canada fell 12.5% year over year (or by 500,000 people) in February, according to the latest U.S. Customs and Border Protection data.
Airlines are taking note of the shifting travel patterns. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said earlier in March that the carrier would cut its flights to Canada amid a "big drop in Canadian traffic going to the U.S."
And, in February, Air Canada's vice president of planning and scheduling, Alexandre Lefèvre, described the state of the U.S.-Canada market as "shaky."
U.S.-Canada seats for the balance of 2025 fell 9% compared to the week before in airlines' last schedule update March 21, data from aviation analytics firm Cirium shows.
Gone are Air Canada's nonstops between Dulles International Airport (IAD) near Washington, D.C., and Vancouver International Airport (YVR) in British Columbia; United Airlines' between Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) and Toronto Pearson Airport (YYZ); and WestJet's between New York's LaGuardia Airport (LGA) and Calgary International Airport (YYC) in Alberta, and Orlando International Airport (MCO) and Edmonton International Airport (YEG) in Alberta.
"We have observed a shift in bookings from the U.S. to other sun destinations such as Mexico and the Caribbean, and to transatlantic destinations," a WestJet spokesperson said. "We remain focused on continuing to fly where there is demand."
Air Canada, Delta Air Lines and United also took a whack at their schedules while leaving existing routes in place. Frequency reductions hit Air Canada flights from LAX to YYZ; Delta routes from Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (MSP) to Montreal-Trudeau International Airport (YUL); and United paths from IAD to both YUL and Ottawa International Airport (YOW) in Ontario, Cirium schedules show.
A Delta spokesperson said the frequency reduction was to "better align with customer demand."
A United spokesperson said its changes were among its "regular adjustments to our flight schedule based on seasonality, demand and other market factors."
The U.S.-Canada schedule changes may just be the beginning. Airlines often adjust the number of flights on a route or the days of the week a flight operates up until about 30 days before departure. That leaves almost the entire summer season in play if bookings do not recover.
Canadian airlines, including Air Canada, Porter Airlines and WestJet, are the most exposed to any drop. They are currently scheduled to fly roughly two-thirds of the U.S.-Canada seats in 2025, according to Cirium.
And a huge drop in Canadian travelers would hit the entire U.S. travel industry hard. In February, the U.S. Travel Association estimated that a 10% drop in Canadian visitors could cost American businesses as much as $2.1 billion in revenue.
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Story updated with comments from Air Canada on advanced U.S.-Canada bookings.