As Lebanon faces tensions on its northern and southern borders, the Middle East is bracing for new changes under the Trump administration
Security conditions along the Lebanese-Syrian border have sharply deteriorated as clashes between the Syrian Armed Forces and Lebanese tribal groups intensify near the town of Al-Qasr in northern Bekaa. The violence has triggered a military response from Damascus, with Syrian military convoys moving toward the border and reinforcements reportedly arriving from Idlib and the Al-Ghab Plain.
Cross-border artillery shelling has escalated, with shells launched from the Qusayr countryside in Syria striking Al-Qasr and surrounding Lebanese areas. In addition, Grad rockets have reportedly hit Hermel, further raising security concerns. The situation has been exacerbated by guided missile strikes targeting vehicles along the border, deepening instability in the region.
In response to the growing tensions, the Lebanese Army has deployed reinforcements to the area, prompting some armed groups to withdraw from Al-Qasr’s outskirts. However, hostilities continue, with projectiles reportedly landing near Lebanese Army positions in Al-Mashrafah.
Amid these developments, Syria’s Ministry of Defense has accused Hezbollah of abducting and executing three Syrian soldiers after taking them across the border into Lebanon. The ministry, via state media outlet SANA, described the alleged incident as a “dangerous escalation” near the Zeita Dam, west of Homs, and vowed to take “all necessary measures” in response.
Hezbollah, however, has categorically denied any involvement in the clashes or any military actions inside Syrian territory. In a statement, the group distanced itself from the ongoing confrontations, emphasizing that it has no role in the unfolding border violence.
In Lebanon
Continuous breaching: Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon killed four people Sunday, according to Lebanese state media and the health ministry. The strikes came after a stray gunshot from Lebanon reportedly hit a parked vehicle in northern Israel.
Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) said two people were killed in Ainata, while additional deaths were reported in Mais al-Jabal and Bint Jbeil. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned of strong retaliation against any cross-border fire.
Trump pressures border talks: US President Donald Trump is reportedly growing frustrated with stalled border negotiations between Israel and Lebanon and may authorize Israeli military action if talks do not progress, Saudi news channel Al Hadath reported Saturday.
The US and French-mediated discussions, which began earlier this month in Naqoura, aim to resolve disputes over the Blue Line border. While Israeli officials hope the talks could lead to normalization, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has dismissed the possibility.
Remembering Kamal Jumblatt: At the 48th anniversary of Kamal Jumblatt’s assassination, former Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Jumblatt declared that “historical justice” had finally been served. Jumblatt said the era of “oppression and tyranny” had ended with Syria’s new leadership under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, announcing that those responsible for his father’s killing had been arrested.
“In my name, my family’s name, and on behalf of the PSP, I announce the closure of this tradition, as justice has been served, even if belatedly,” he stated. He also urged Druze in Syria’s Jabal Al-Arab region to resist external influence and defend their shared struggle against occupation and colonialism.
New governor soon: The US is influencing Lebanon’s choice for its next central bank governor, aiming to curb corruption and Hezbollah’s access to illicit financing, according to five sources familiar with the matter. The U.S. is vetting candidates for Lebanon’s next central bank governor, according to three Lebanese sources, a Western diplomat, and a Trump administration official. Leading candidates for the role include former Labor Minister Camille Abou Sleiman, investment executive Firas Abi Nassif, IMF official Jihad Azour, and asset management executives Philippe Jabr and Karim Said.
New Army Chief: Lebanon appointed Brigadier General Rodolphe Haykal as the new army commander, replacing Joseph Aoun, who became president. Haykal, 56, previously led the army’s operations and commanded the sector south of the Litani River during the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
He is expected to play a key role in enforcing the November ceasefire, which required Israel’s full withdrawal, although Israel still controls five strategic positions.
In The Region
No entry: Dr. Rasha Alawieh, a 34-year-old doctor working at Brown Medicine, was denied re-entry to the U.S. at Boston’s Logan Airport this week after visiting her parents in Lebanon.
Alawieh, who has been working in the U.S. for six years, held a valid H-1B visa until mid-2027. She was detained at the airport, with her family fearing deportation to Lebanon.
First crossing: A group of Syrian Druze religious leaders crossed into the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights early Friday, marking a significant shift in Israel’s strategy along the frontier.
This is the first such crossing in five decades, as Druze leaders visited religious sites and communities in Israeli-controlled territory. Despite no diplomatic ties between Syria and Israel, the move signals growing Israeli military control over Syrian territory and challenges the new government in Damascus. The crossing occurred through a UN-monitored buffer zone created after the 1973 War ceasefire.
Helping the transition: The European Union is hosting a donor conference in Brussels on Monday to gather support for Syria’s transition after President Bashar Assad was ousted by an insurgency in December.
Representatives from Western nations, Syria’s neighbors, Arab countries, and UN agencies will attend, with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas presiding. Syria will attend for the first time, represented by Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani.
The conference, held at a critical time, aims to address the challenges facing Syria’s new leadership in consolidating control over fractured territories and rebuilding the economy. The UN estimates rebuilding costs at $250 billion, with experts suggesting the figure could exceed $400 billion.
Erdogan and Trump: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan spoke with US President Donald Trump on Sunday about efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war and restore stability in Syria.
Erdogan expressed support for Trump’s initiatives to end the war, emphasizing Turkey’s commitment to a “just and lasting peace.” He also highlighted the need to lift sanctions on Syria to restore stability and support the new administration, enabling Syrians to return home.
Deadly attack: At least 53 people have been killed and nearly 100 others wounded in US airstrikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen, following President Donald Trump’s order for “decisive” military action against the Iran-backed group. The strikes targeted Houthi forces responsible for recent attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea.
Trump announced the deployment of “overwhelming lethal force” on Truth Social, signaling the start of a prolonged operation aimed at neutralizing the Houthis. The Houthi-run health ministry reported casualties, including women and children, and warned of potential escalation.
More taking over: President Trump’s plan to address the Palestinian issue has united Arab states in opposition, but divisions remain over who should govern Gaza and how to fund its reconstruction.
Umer Karim, an expert on Saudi foreign policy, described the summit as “the most consequential” in decades for both the Arab world and the Palestinian cause. Trump’s proposal to have the US “take over the Gaza Strip” and relocate its 2.4 million residents to Egypt and Jordan sparked global outrage.
The ongoing killing streak: Israeli military strikes have killed at least 15 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip over the past 24 hours, according to Gaza’s health ministry. Despite a ceasefire that took effect on January 19, Palestinian officials report dozens of deaths from Israeli fire.
Israel’s military stated its forces acted to prevent threats posed by “terrorists” approaching its troops or planting bombs since the ceasefire. The latest deaths occurred on Saturday, with an Israeli airstrike in Beit Lahiya, in northern Gaza, killing nine Palestinians, including four journalists.
What We Are Reading
World Bank estimates Lebanon’s post-war reconstruction and recovery needs at $11 billion: Journalist Rodayna Raydan reports on the 2025 Lebanon Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA), which estimates that Lebanon will require $3–5 billion in public sector funding to address urgent needs, including $1 billion allocated to infrastructure sectors like energy, municipal and public services, transportation, and water, sanitation, and irrigation. Private sector contributions are expected to range between $6–8 billion, with a significant portion focused on housing, trade, industry, and tourism. The RDNA, prepared at the request of the Lebanese government, assesses 10 key sectors, including agriculture, education, health, and environmental management.
A new fear around the border: Journalist Dana Hourany reports on recent violence in Syria’s coastal region, where sectarian clashes led thousands of Alawites to flee to Lebanon, particularly to Akkar. The influx of over 10,000 refugees has heightened sectarian tensions in Lebanon, especially in Tripoli, where Sunni and Alawite communities are historically divided. The situation is further complicated by the involvement of Sunni militants supporting Syrian rebels.
The Hezbollah Illusion – The Cost of a Militia in a Failing State: Political psychologist Ramzi Abu Ismail analyzes the recent silence of the Lebanese government amid Israeli airstrikes, as Hezbollah supporters defended the group’s weapons on social media. While Hezbollah has justified its armed presence with a narrative of resistance against Israel, Abu Ismail argues that this justification is crumbling. He points out that if Hezbollah’s model had truly worked, Lebanon would not be facing economic paralysis, diplomatic isolation, and military vulnerability today. Despite the end of Israel’s occupation in 2000, Hezbollah’s involvement in regional conflicts has only intensified, undermining its original narrative.
Government breaches constitution on budget and appointments: Journalist Maan Barazy reports on the approval of Lebanon’s 2025 state budget, which breaches Article 86 of the Lebanese Constitution. The budget was passed by decree without any reform, merely repeating the 2024 version, which was ratified before the October 7th war. This failure to meet constitutional requirements and the lack of necessary updates has serious implications for Lebanon’s economy. The budget targets a deficit of LBP 17,567 billion, and financing it through treasury bills could further destabilize the financial system, especially in light of the current banking crisis. Experts urge swift action to prevent exacerbating the crisis.
