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Maybe it's too easy to shoot down an airliner

How do you shoot down a civilian passenger jet on a scheduled flight with a military surface-to-air missile – by accident? Far too easily, it would appear.

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How do you shoot down a civilian passenger jet on a scheduled flight with a military surface-to-air missile – by accident?

Far too easily, it would appear.

If you’re my age, you may remember watching the night skies over Baghdad on TV as the first cruise missiles rained down on the city in the first U.S. Desert War.

In that attack, and others to follow in Iraq, Kosovo, Libya and elsewhere over the years, TV viewers learned a few things about massive, overwhelming air power.

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We learned the attacking air force targets the enemy’s air defence and command and control systems first. Destroying anti-aircraft weapons makes it safer for follow-on aircraft and missiles.

Destroying the enemy’s ability to issue orders to surviving air defence systems, scramble jet fighters or mobilize troops further cripples their ability to defend against the attack.

The Iranian Army watched those channels, too.

The government of Iran – after publicly boasting it would crush the most powerful military in the world – after launching a quiver of ballistic missiles at two U.S. military bases in neighbouring Iraq – could reasonably expect the Americans might retaliate.

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They might even expect the U.S. to have pre-selected multiple targets – say 52, or more – inside Iran.

Iran’s generals may have done what generals everywhere do if they’re concerned about an air attack. They may have issued advance orders to their anti-aircraft missile and gun commanders in case of attack: “If this happens, do that.”

That way, even if their communications failed, their military would fight back.

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In western armies, air defenders are often assigned different levels of readiness during combat operations: “Weapons Hold,” “Weapons Tight,” or “Weapons Free.”

On “Weapons Hold,” battery commanders cannot fire at any airborne target without explicit orders to do so, or in self defence.

On “Weapons Tight,” commanders can fire at an airborne target on their own if they’re positive it’s an enemy.

On “Weapons Free,” they can fire at any aircraft or missile in the sky unless they’re positive it’s friendly.

Now imagine you’re a young, inexperienced officer in command of an Iranian missile battery for the first time.

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A short time ago your country pissed off the most advanced air force on the planet. Your job is to protect the capital city from them. You don’t want to disappoint the Ayatollah.

Maybe your radar pings with an aircraft return at 8,000 feet. Maybe it’s coming towards you. American stealth fighters fly at 2,400 km/h. You have seconds to decide what to do.

Maybe it’s not even your decision. Maybe your SA-15 missile battery is largely automated. It can fire a missile at an airborne target eight seconds after detecting it on radar.

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Do you stop it?

Can you positively identify the target as friend or foe in less than eight seconds?

You should be able to. But, maybe you’re not well-trained. Maybe you’re inexperienced. Maybe you haven’t slept in days.

Maybe you’ve been driving your battery around the desert for days, hoping the Americans won’t find you. Do you even know where the airport is? Do you know where commercial flight paths are?

You should. But.

Can your equipment identify the transponder signal from a civilian jetliner? Do you believe what it tells you? Or, could it be an enemy trick? Iran is counting on you.

Maybe you misidentified the target as enemy. Maybe you couldn’t prove it was friendly.

Maybe you never meant to hurt anyone.

Regardless, as Professor Christian Leuprecht of the Royal Military College suggested on Toronto talk radio station NEWSTALK 1010 Friday morning, whatever decision you made or didn’t make, chances are you and your crew are already buried under the desert sand somewhere outside Tehran.

Maybe no one even asked you what happened.

Maybe it was that easy.

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