Route map shows BA flight's dramatic u-turn after Iran missile strike on Iraq as airline swerve area

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Commercial airlines are swerving Iraqi and Iranian airspace today after heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington raised concerns that passenger planes could be shot out of the sky by mistake.  

Airlines are rerouting flights throughout the region to avoid potential danger during heightened tensions between the United States and Iran. 

Jumbled schedules could effect as many as 15,000 passengers per day, lengthen flight times by an average of 30 to 90 minutes, and severely bruise the bottom line for airlines, industry analysts said. 

Aviation buffs shared images of the BA134 jet, bound for London from Mumbai, approaching Iraqi airspace from the south. All of a sudden, the plane redirects and circles back round before jetting across the Gulf. 

A map shows a selection of routes that usually fly through Iranian airspace 

Pictured: Last night's records show the BA flight reconsidering its route and swooping over Kuwait and Saudi Arabia instead 

Pictured: 2017 file photo shows a British Airways plane landing at Heathrow airport 

The diversion was recorded around two hours after Iran launched a shower of missiles on US bases at Erbil airport and Ain al-Asad in western Iraq.

The aircraft, which has capacity for 200 passengers, flew over Saudi Arabia, Egypt and landed in Athens, rather than breaching Iraqi and Iranian airspace. 

A passenger on board the diverted BA134, which landed in Athens rather than its destination of London, tweeted: 'BA134 landed in Athens due to airspace closure over Middle East. 

There is anxiety that the conflict between the longtime foes could intensify following Iranian ballistic missile strikes Tuesday on two Iraqi bases that house U.S. troops. The attacks were retaliation for the US killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guard General Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike near Baghdad last week.

'In a war situation, the first casualty is always air transport, said Dubai-based aviation consult Mark Martin, pointing to airline bankruptcies during the Persian Gulf and Yugoslav wars.

At least 500 commercial flights travel through Iranian and Iraqi airspace daily, Martin said.

In this 2015 file photo, two Qantas planes taxi on the runway at Sydney airport. Australian carrier Qantas said it was altering its London to Perth, Australia, routes to avoid Iran and Iraq airspace until further notice

A billboard shows two cancelled Eurowings flights on December 30, 2019. Some operators, including German Lufthansa, cancelled its Frankfurt to Tehran flights

A Ukrainian passenger jet crashed shortly after taking off from Iran's capital Wednesday killing 167 passengers and nine crew members just hours after Iran's ballistic missile attack, but Iranian officials said they suspected a mechanical issue brought down the three-year-old Boeing 737-800 aircraft. Ukrainian officials initially agreed, but later backed away and declined to offer a cause while the investigation is ongoing.

Still, at least two Kazakh airlines - Air Astana and SCAT - were considering rerouting or canceling their flights over Iran following the crash, which killed all 176 passengers.

Poland's national carrier, PLL LOT, said Saturday that it was changing routes to bypass Iran's airspace.

A suite of other European carriers followed on Wednesday, and the restrictions were expected to 'further depress' air travel between Iran and Western Europe, which saw strong growth after the Iran nuclear deal but a sharp dive when President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the agreement and reimposed sanctions, according to the Sydney-based Center for Aviation consultancy.

Air France and Dutch carrier KLM both said Wednesday that they had suspended all flights over Iranian and Iraqi airspace indefinitely.

German airline Lufthansa and two of its subsidiaries also canceled flights to Iraq.

The Russian aviation agency, Rosaviatsia, issued an official recommendation for all Russian airlines to avoid flying over Iran, Iraq, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman 'due to existing risks for the safety of international civil flights.'

Russia's biggest private airline, S7, said it would reroute its twice-a-week flight from the Siberian city of Novosibirsk to Dubai.

Asia-Pacific carriers, which operate many of the world's long-haul flights, were also expected to be hit hard by the ad hoc no-fly zone over Iran, Martin said.

Soleimani's burial came hours after missiles launched from inside Iran hit US bases in Iraq

Australian carrier Qantas said it was altering its London to Perth, Australia, route to avoid Iranian and Iraqi airspace until further notice. The longer route meant that Qantas would have to carry fewer passengers and more fuel to remain in the air for an extra 40 to 50 minutes.

Malaysia Airlines said that 'due to recent events,' its planes would avoid Iranian airspace.

Singapore Airlines also said that its flights to Europe would be re-routed to avoid Iran.

India's Directorate General of Civil Aviation advised Indian commercial carriers to avoid Iranian, Iraqi and Persian Gulf airspace.

Buta Airways, an Azerbaijani low-cost carrier, said Wednesday that it was not planning to suspend or reroute daily flights between Baku, the country's capital, and Tehran.

In North America, Air Canada rerouted its flight from Toronto to Dubai through Egypt and Saudi Arabia to avoid traveling over Iraq.

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration said it was barring American pilots and carriers from flying in areas of Iraqi, Iranian and some Persian Gulf airspace. The agency warned of the 'potential for miscalculation or mis-identification' for civilian aircraft amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamene claimed to have given US a 'slap in the face'

Such restrictions are often precautionary in nature to prevent civilian aircraft from being confused for ones engaged in armed conflict. The FAA said the restrictions were being issued due to 'heightened military activities and increased political tensions in the Middle East, which present an inadvertent risk to US civil aviation operations.'

In the Middle East, United Arab Emirates-owned budget airline flydubai said it had canceled a scheduled flight Wednesday from Dubai to Baghdad but was continuing flights to Basra and Najaf. Etihad Airways, the second-largest airline in the UAE, continued to operate on a regular schedule, but asked travelers who want to change flights to contact the carrier.

Emirates airline flights between Dubai and Baghdad were canceled.

'The safety of our passengers, crew and aircraft is our number one priority and will not be compromised,' Emirates said in a statement.

Qatar Airways, however, said its flights to Iraq were operating normally. 'The safety of our passengers and employees is of the highest importance, and we continue to closely monitor developments in Iraq,' the airline said in a statement.

Was the Ukrainian jet brought down by an Iranian missile - or were the 176 people on board killed by a mechanical failure? Here are the five key theories 

Theory one: Mechanical failure or pilot error 

Iranian authorities have said that initial investigations point to either an engine failure - or a catastrophic pilot error.

The three-year-old Boeing 737 jet came down just three minutes after take-off from Imam Khomeini International Airport.

Iranian officials said the pilot had lost control of the Boeing jet after a fire struck one of the plane's engines, but said the crew had not reported an emergency and did not say what caused the fire. 

Footage of the crash appears to show the plane streaking downwards with a small blaze on the wing, near its jet engines (pictured above on the ground).

But critics have questioned the Iranian account, calling it the 'fastest investigation in aviation history' - and said the Boeing 737 has a largely outstanding safety record with no recent history of an engine failure of this kind.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has instructed prosecutors to open criminal proceedings - a clear signal that he is unsure about Iran's version of events. 

His Government also revealed the plane was inspected just two days ago. 

Theory two: Accidentally hit by an Iranian missile

The plane came down shortly after Iran launched its missile attacks Iraq with tens of ballistic weapons fired from the rogue state.

Photographs of the downed Ukrainian airlines jet show that the fuselage appears to be peppered with shrapnel damage.

Experts have said that an engine fire or pilot error does not explain those holes (pictured). 

Ilya Kusa, a Ukrainian international affairs expert, said amid the US-Iranian tensions and said: 'It is difficult not to connect the plane crash with the US-Iran confrontation. The situation is very difficult. One must understand that this happened shortly after Iran's missile attacks on US military facilities'.

Just hours before the crash, the US Federal Aviation Administration had banned US airlines from flying over Iran, Iraq and the waters of the Persian Gulf due to the Middle East crisis. 

This was due to the possibility of missiles flying towards Iraq - and airlines are still skirting the region as they head to and from Asia. 

Theory three: Jet was deliberately brought down by a missile 

Video footage tweeted by the BBC's Iran correspondent, Ali Hashem, appeared to show the plane already burning in the sky before it crashed in a massive explosion.

It sparked speculation that the jet could have been shot down accidentally by nervous Iranian air defence soldiers, hours after Iran fired 22 ballistic missiles at US bases in retaliation for the killing of general Qassem Soleimani.

But there is a major question mark over whether Iran would shoot down a plane with so many of its own citizens on board. 

Many of the world's major airlines have stopped flying through or even near Iranian airspace as they cross the globe amid safety fears after US/Iran tensions boiled over in the past week.    

Iran is a key ally of Vladimir Putin's Russia, which grabbed Crimea from Ukraine and has been involved in an on-off conflict with its neighbour since 2014.

Russia has denied shooting down the ill-fated MH17 jet five years ago - but experts say otherwise with three Russians arrested over the disaster.

 Theory four: An accidental drone strike

Experts have speculated that the Ukrainian aircraft could have collided with a military drone before crashing.

The drone may have smashed into the engine - or been sucked in - with the pilot unsighted because it was after dark.

This could cause an explosion and the fire seen as the plane hit the ground (pictured). 

Experts said Iranian were in the air at the time - in case the US decided to fight back - and not always picked up by radar. 

Russian military pilot Vladimir Popov said: 'It could have been an unmanned reconnaissance aircraft, which are small in size and poorly visible on radars. A plane in a collision could get significant damage and even catch fire in the air.'

Theory five: Sabotage or a terror attack

 

Aviation experts have urged investigators to rule out whether the plane was brought down by terrorists or as an act of sabotage.

They say that while a flaming engine is highly unusual, the sudden loss of data communications from the plane is even more so.    

This could be caused by a bomb, that blew up after the 737 took to the air, wrecking its systems.

An electronic jammer weapon that knocked out the plane's controls could also explain it.

British expert Julian Bray said it 'could be an altitude triggered device set to detonate during take off. Unusual that engine seen to be on fire before crash, points to catastrophic incident' or being 'deliberately brought down'.

He added that based on the footage pilot error looks 'unlikely'.

Experts have said that if the black box is not recovered by Iranian security officials (pictured) from the wreckage it could point to it being a deliberate act. 

After the crash the Ukrainian embassy in Tehran reported that the crash had been caused by an engine failure rather than terrorism - but this was later deleted on social media. 

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